企业重拾对资本支出的热爱

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企业重拾对资本支出的热爱



Firms are rediscovering their love for capex. Good 企业重拾对资本支出的热爱。好事一桩。

That is both a radical change and an enormously important one 这是个既彻底又及其重要的改变
May 29th 2021 |

AS THE RICH world reopens, the contours of the post-pandemic economy are becoming clear. The latest trend is a global surge in capital spending. Forecasters reckon that overall real investment worldwide will soon be a fifth higher than it was before the pandemic. America’s business investment is rising at an annual rate of 15%. By 2022 companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to be spending over a tenth more on factories, technology, R&D and the like. Barely a day goes by without a large firm boasting about how much it plans to splurge. AT&T says it will throw $24bn a year at its networks. Sony is piling $18bn into an expansion push. Semiconductor firms are engaged in one of the biggest capital-spending (or capex) sprees in history.

随着富国重新开放，后疫情经济的轮廓也变得清晰起来。全球资本支出激增是最新趋势。预测机构估计，全球实际投资总额很快将比疫情前高出五分之一。美国商业投资正以每年15%的速度增长。据预测，到2022年，标普500指数成分股公司在工厂、科技、研发等方面的支出将增加十分之一以上。几乎天天都有大公司大肆宣扬自己的重金支出计划。AT&T声称每年要在网络建设上投入240亿美金。索尼砸下180亿美金以推进公司扩张。半导体公司则参与到史上最大的一场资本支出（或称capex）狂潮之中。

That is both a sharp change and an enormously significant one. Sharp, because before covid-19 managers embraced capex austerity. America’s business investment had stagnated relative to GDP for several decades. Britain’s was 15% lower than in the late 1990s. Even as business profits soared, firms devoted a smaller share of their cashflows to capex and R&D, and more to share buybacks and dividends. Significant, because investment in new technologies and business practices is the secret sauce behind higher living standards. Weak capital spending contributed to the rich world’s sluggish productivity and growth in the 2010s, and to the gnawing sense that capitalism was misfiring.

这是个既急剧又及其重要的变化。说它“急剧”，是因为疫情之前管理者都信奉资本支出紧缩理念。美国商业投资相对于GDP已停滞了数十年。英国的商业投资比20世纪90年代末还低了15%。即使商业利润飙升，企业也只将现金流中的较小份额投入到资本支出和研发上，而把更多的份额放在股票回购和股息上。说它“重要”，是因为对新科技和商业实践的投资是提高生活水平背后的秘密武器。资本支出不足造成了2010年代富国生产力疲软、增长低迷，也引发了一种痛苦感：资本主义要熄火了。

Now, though, all that is changing. Fiscal stimulus has put money in people’s pockets. In America real disposable income per person is 27% higher than it was in February 2020. And as economies reopen, people are in the mood to spend. Companies can thus be more confident there will be demand for their wares in the next few years—as good an incentive as any to expand capacity. Some firms, especially in consumer-facing industries, are low on inventory and are frantically trying to catch up.

如今一切都在改变。财政刺激计划让人们的钱包鼓了起来。美国人均可支配收入比2020年2月高了27%。随着经济重启，人们也有了花钱的兴致。因此企业更有信心，未来几年内他们的商品都不愁没人要——这是对扩大产能的最好刺激。有些企业，特别是从事面向消费者行业的企业，库存不足，正在疯狂补货。

Yet capital spending is rising not just because the economic cycle is on the up. Firms are also adjusting to permanent pandemic-induced shifts, from an emerging norm of “hybrid work” to greater online shopping. The big tech firms, whose products are so important to this shift, have led the investment charge. In 2020 they accounted for a third of total R&D spending in the S&P 500; this year they are boosting capex by 30% relative to 2019.

然而，资本支出增长不仅是因为经济周期正处于上升势头。企业也正在适应由疫情导致的永久性转变，包括从新兴的“混合工作”模式到更大规模的网上购物等。大型科技公司，其产品对于这一转变至关重要，引领了这股投资热潮。2020年，在所有标普500指数成分股公司中，它们的研发支出占了总研发支出的三分之一。与2019年相比，今年其资本支出增加了30%。

Other companies now recognise that they need to pull up their socks. High-street retailers are at last investing heavily in online offerings to compete with Amazon. Restaurants continue to improve their dine-at-home service even as dine-in reopens, allowing them to squeeze more sales out of preparing food. Consultancies are finding ways to let their staff remain connected when they are not in the office. Growth in global shipments of computers for companies will be even faster this year than last. All this promises a world in which people get more done in less time.

其他企业现在也认识到，他们需要鼓足劲加油干。高街零售商终于肯砸重金投入线上服务，与亚马逊一争高下。虽然已重新开放堂食，餐厅仍继续对“居家用餐”服务进行改进，这使他们能从备餐服务中获取更多销售额。咨询公司想方设法让员工即使不在办公室也能保持联系。今年全球公司电脑出货量将比去年增长更快。以上一切都预示着，人们将在更短时间内完成更多工作。

Firms in some industries still play by the rules of the 2010s. Mining companies seem cautious about shelling out in order to relieve supply bottlenecks in commodity markets. Big hotel chains appear to have no plans to install rainforest showers in every room. And it remains to be seen whether the post-pandemic norm will be one of structurally higher investment spending, or whether firms slip back into their old ways. For now, though, stand back and appreciate the global capex surge. It promises a more dynamic form of capitalism. ■

一些行业的公司仍在按照2010年代的规则行事。为缓解大宗商品市场的供给瓶颈而掏钱投资，矿业公司似乎对此持谨慎态度。大型酒店连锁似乎也无计划要给每个房间安装雨林淋浴。疫情后的常态是投资支出结构性升高，还是企业回归老路子，还有待观察。但现在，还是让我们别太着急，好好珍惜这场全球资本支出的高涨。它预示了一种更有活力的资本主义的到来。